The best source I have found on the Virus is the YouTube channel Peak Prosperity. The guy that runs it has a PHD in the biomed field. He does an update most days. Some of the videos also cover financial implications of the virus. Peak Prosperity
Corona Virus Feb 2020
- Thread starter rich01
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It is interesting the different approaches being taken by different governments to the Coronavirus pandemic. Around Europe a number of governments have closed schools and colleges and prohibited larger public events, but here in the UK we haven't. The British Prime Minister held a press conference yesterday, which you can see here, (44 minutes long), in which his medical and scientific advisers gave credible explanations for this. Basically the thinking seemed to be: this is incredibly serious and we know people will die, but we can't stop it spreading and our strategy is to "flatten out the curve" so that when people need medical care is spread over a longer period, delaying this peak as long as possible so that normal winter pressures from flu etc on hospitals reduce, freeing capacity for treating Coronavirus sufferers. If you close schools there is a risk that children will be looked after by their grandparents, who are high risk. Cancelling sporting events such as football games could mean people gathering in bars and pubs to watch in worse environments, increasing infections. Imposing lockdowns and self-isolation too early will lead to people getting bored and non-compliant at what could well be worse times.
The UK policy is being steered by the professional advice and experts who model human behaviour, but who is right when other governments are doing such different things taking their own professional advice? Are other countries' politicians 'giving in' to the pressure that 'something must be done' when the timing of steps taken is critical and may not be 'now', or is the UK losing precious time in restricting movements to slow down the spread? Are we benefiting from getting infections later than other countries, learning from their experience, or is this economically driven? Does closing schools mean you lose a significant percentage of your medical staff who now have to look after their children, who will play with friends and spread things more than if they went to school?
So many questions, and only time will tell. For me, with cardiovascular issues, diabetes and being male (!), living in London and normally commuting on packed public transport, having read how serious and horrible catching Covid-19 can be I am now working from home full time. I have the support of my employer to do so, but not everyone can do that of course. Alarming times for our community.
The UK policy is being steered by the professional advice and experts who model human behaviour, but who is right when other governments are doing such different things taking their own professional advice? Are other countries' politicians 'giving in' to the pressure that 'something must be done' when the timing of steps taken is critical and may not be 'now', or is the UK losing precious time in restricting movements to slow down the spread? Are we benefiting from getting infections later than other countries, learning from their experience, or is this economically driven? Does closing schools mean you lose a significant percentage of your medical staff who now have to look after their children, who will play with friends and spread things more than if they went to school?
So many questions, and only time will tell. For me, with cardiovascular issues, diabetes and being male (!), living in London and normally commuting on packed public transport, having read how serious and horrible catching Covid-19 can be I am now working from home full time. I have the support of my employer to do so, but not everyone can do that of course. Alarming times for our community.
rich01
Well-known member
It doesn't make sense to me. Who will take care of the kids when they do get the coronavirus?
I can't see how this can flatten out the curve. There are models of what has worked - China, Taiwan, S Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong, and I think Hungary.
Governments keep pushing social distancing, but I don't think they have really explained what that involves. If everyone wore a mask it would help a lot. Assume every one is contagious and wear a mask, if you are in an area where the virus is active.
Good luck. We all need it.
ETA: Just listened to Dr John. He explained the UK policy and it makes sense.
They are already past the containment stage. The virus is widespread and may infect up to 80% of population. Schools will likely be closed later for 13-16 weeks. The peak is 10-14 weeks away. What they are focused on is minimizing the peak.
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The advice here is that masks are counterproductive. Most are not fine enough to restrict the virus microbes, and do not seal well enough. Also, private individuals buying up these products may deprive medical staff (including dentists) of them, causing disruption to treatment. A mask's primary benefit may be if worn by an infected person to reduce the spread.
This tweet by Sir Tim Berners-Lee (he who is credited with inventing the World Wide Web) links to a very interesting article at Medium.com that discusses the actions being taken by governments and their effectiveness, and the need to take action.
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cuoricino
www.thoughtsfromabroad.com
I am certainly no expert on coronavirus. But I've started a blog to share my observations and personal experiences living in locked down Italy. If this helps folks in other countries understand what might happen in the coming days/weeks, feel free to read/share:
www.thoughtsfromabroad.com
www.thoughtsfromabroad.com
rich01
Well-known member
The main reason we are told not to wear a mask is because governments screwed up and there are not enough even for health professionals.
Don't they tell people with the virus to wear a mask? What I am suggesting is if everyone wore a mask, we could then be sure everyone with the virus was wearing a mask - whether they had been tested or not.
Wearing a mask does provide protection, even if not 100%. The problem is to get a tight seal. And people find it a bit uncomfortable breathing through the respirator. But if it becomes widespread in my area, you better believe I will wear a mask and gloves, and even goggles although mine don't make a tight seal.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/23/health/coronavirus-surgical-masks.html
I think if governments had immediately turned to private industry to make millions of the masks per day, we could have stopped COVID-19 in its tracks. It shouldn't be that hard to make a mask that seals and is comfortable to wear. It certainly is cheaper than the boondoggle governments are engaging in.
Check out Dr John Campbell's videos on youtube. He is very measured in his discussion. In today's video (March 13) he discusses UK (where he is from).
Have you noticed that when you see pictures of countries where the virus is under control, everyone seems to be wearing a mask?
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rich01
Well-known member
I watch Dr John Campbell in the morning. He is very calm and measured. Then in the evening I watch Peak Prosperity.
My GP surgery phoned today to let me know that I cannot attend the practice to see my GP next week when I have an appointment. The GP will telephone me instead and conduct the consultation over the phone - only if necessary letting me come to the surgery to see her. They are doing this for all patients at my practice now due to the Covid-19 coronavirus on the advice of NHS England 
There have been many changes here in the United States. Professional Basketball and Hockey have suspended games. The NCAA (National Collegiate Athletics Association) has cancelled its annual championships. Other events have similarly been canceled.
The Primary election in the State of Louisiana has been moved to June.
The Governor of California has issued an executive order banning large events (that religious organizations have meant to mean THEM), or events with groups of ten or more. The archdiocese of Los Angeles has banned communion for the time being. Temples have stopped having services attended by all but the essential people, streaming the services instead of having services where members can actually attend, I suspect that most groups have adopted similar restrictions. The Los Angeles Unified School District (all of L.A.'s public schools) has joined with other school districts in canceling classes.
Meanwhile, there are panics in the stores. Grocery and other stores have empty shelves - it looks like the aftermath of a 'going out of business sale' inside most stores. Parking lots are jammed. It may take 30 minutes or more to check out.
The hysteria is fueling all kinds of hording behaviors. I'm surprised that there haven't been reported fist fights over the last roll of toilet paper, or can of soup, or parking space.
I have a question about the value of testing. Sure, if you don't get a false negative for someone who is tested for virus. In fact, you may get a true negative for someone who is tested. But this doesn't prove that they're immune or can't get the virus. What about the cases where a person who tests negative today gets the virus next week? They don't seem to be giving this possibility a lot of thought.
Stay well, gang.
The Primary election in the State of Louisiana has been moved to June.
The Governor of California has issued an executive order banning large events (that religious organizations have meant to mean THEM), or events with groups of ten or more. The archdiocese of Los Angeles has banned communion for the time being. Temples have stopped having services attended by all but the essential people, streaming the services instead of having services where members can actually attend, I suspect that most groups have adopted similar restrictions. The Los Angeles Unified School District (all of L.A.'s public schools) has joined with other school districts in canceling classes.
Meanwhile, there are panics in the stores. Grocery and other stores have empty shelves - it looks like the aftermath of a 'going out of business sale' inside most stores. Parking lots are jammed. It may take 30 minutes or more to check out.
The hysteria is fueling all kinds of hording behaviors. I'm surprised that there haven't been reported fist fights over the last roll of toilet paper, or can of soup, or parking space.
I have a question about the value of testing. Sure, if you don't get a false negative for someone who is tested for virus. In fact, you may get a true negative for someone who is tested. But this doesn't prove that they're immune or can't get the virus. What about the cases where a person who tests negative today gets the virus next week? They don't seem to be giving this possibility a lot of thought.
Stay well, gang.
The UK is now only testing for the virus in hospital patients, not in people who fall ill at home - this in the face of WHO advice. People who fall ill with the virus at home are being told not to contact the health authorities but just to self isolate for 14 days - only contact health authorities if their condition worsens. Some people, of course, might think they've only got a cold yet they actually have the virus so will continue their normal lives and infect others.
So the true numbers of people with the virus will not be known here in the UK. Seems like something political to make out the numbers will be lower in the UK than they really are.
So the true numbers of people with the virus will not be known here in the UK. Seems like something political to make out the numbers will be lower in the UK than they really are.
two work colleagues on friday, had cold like symptoms.. and yet still came into work
given the UK's policy of deliberately allowing up to 80% of the population to become infected, and theoretically give the country herd immunity (deeply flawed imo), i have no chance of avoiding it
v worried as i was due to have my valve replacement in the first half of this year (cant see that happening now unless i become symptomatic)
these are v worrying times
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ATHENS1964
Well-known member
- Joined
- Oct 19, 2019
- Messages
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Me too I'm very worried as my replacement valve is too small so makes my heart work harder than it should and I have a respiratory condition too. On top of that the UK doesn't have enough hospital beds or intensive care beds, we have the lowest number in Europe per head of population, our hospitals are already full without this virus. When the rates of the virus increase and the number of seriously ill patients with it increase what will happen when there are no beds left ?
seems as though the government is prepared for a "cull" to solve that problem
rather than the route china and italy have gone down, which is complete lock down to slow down the spread, save lives in the short term, and buy time for effective anti-virals to be found
Paleowoman - I'm somewhat concerned with the corollary to people going to hospitals thinking that they've got Corona virus when they only have a cold --- what about those who are self-isolating because they think they only have a cold, but instead actually DO have corona virus? I guess that, if their symptoms get very severe, they'll jump out of self-isolation and seek medical attention -- but some may not.
In the United States, it's been predicted that we may also run out of hospital beds by mid-May. Events with large crowds are banned; primary elections are being rescheduled, television shows are being filmed without audiences (it didn't work - without a cheering, booing, or laughing audience, the shows don't work - so they're showing reruns), some shows and movies have suspended production, etc., etc. I've written about this before, and won't belabor the point here.
This pandemic is changing the way business is gettnig done, isolating people to unprecedented degrees, and, perhaps, in some ways, returning us to 'simpler' times - like it may have been a century or more ago - maybe for the better. It'll be interesting to see how soon the survivors of this pandemic return to business and society as usual once the virus has run its course.
In the United States, it's been predicted that we may also run out of hospital beds by mid-May. Events with large crowds are banned; primary elections are being rescheduled, television shows are being filmed without audiences (it didn't work - without a cheering, booing, or laughing audience, the shows don't work - so they're showing reruns), some shows and movies have suspended production, etc., etc. I've written about this before, and won't belabor the point here.
This pandemic is changing the way business is gettnig done, isolating people to unprecedented degrees, and, perhaps, in some ways, returning us to 'simpler' times - like it may have been a century or more ago - maybe for the better. It'll be interesting to see how soon the survivors of this pandemic return to business and society as usual once the virus has run its course.
People are not meant to go to a hospital if they think they have coronavirus, they have to phone NHS 111 who will check them, so that should keep people with just colds out of hospital. But the danger of people with the virus simply self isolating, without having been tested as they were being tested and should be as per WHO, is as you say, they may not seek medical attention if their symptoms get severe, or what if they are alone and feel too ill ? Prior to the UK government's announcement about just staying at home and not contacting NHS 111, the plan was that everyone would be tested if they thought they had the virus (there are the resources) and if positive someone medical would keep in touch by phone daily to check up on them - that will not happen now.
Im the same as you but in London. I sure mine will be delayed.
I have little doubt that there is no good solution to Covid-19, and that different governments are effectively experimenting to achieve best results. I thought this 3min video explains the UK government's thinking very well, aiming to achieve a much lower second peak next winter, as per this graph:
Time will tell who is right.
Time will tell who is right.
It would appear that the UK government is seeing sense today and is in the process of changing tactics. None of this wanting 60% of the population to get the virus ! They are going to announce within the next few weeks that all over 70s and those with certain health conditions self isolate for several months, that they get groceries and medicines delivered and that anyone visiting keep 6 feet apart from them. They are now admitting that there are not enough ventilators or ICU beds and will be addressing that urgently. They will give police powers to arrest anyone with the virus who is not self isolating and so on.
the UK government seem set to ask the over 70s and people considered vulnerable with underlying health conditions to self isolate for 4 month, in the next few weeks.
i'm wondering if some of us would have to do this ?
i'm wondering if some of us would have to do this ?
