Corona Virus Feb 2020

[tom in MO]

That is what makes this virus so dangerous.
21% of patients are serious or critical.
6% to 7% die.
We could be part of the 21%.
Before my heartvalve replacement my doctor informed me that I had a 99% chance of surviving.
I didn't like the odds then.
21% scares the bejesus out of me.

You shouldn't be scared, you already live with the knowledge that 100% of all people die of something.

Plus you live on the outskirts of Paris, some people live just to see Paris and you live there

 

[jcgtok17]

The WHO (World Health Organization) has stated that the CFR (Case fatality rate) as near as they can figure is 3.4%. There is a big issue in many places due to lack of testing. S. Korea has the biggest pool of tested cases I am aware of (upwards of 10,000/day) and highest globally as a % of population tested. S Korea's CFR is less than 1% (0.68%). Hopefully broader testing migrate to the lower number. I would think respiratory illness would be a higher risk pre-existing condition given how COVID-19 typically enter the human body, but valvular heart disease is heart disease and would place risk higher than gen pop for certain (exact # would be elusive and cardiac issues have been reported is a small subset of patients). The WHO has announced $12bln in aid (8bln new, 4bln re-directed) this week. Stay safe all. Schools shut for a month here in Tokyo, 13mm kids home, incl. mine.

 

[Paleowoman]

Everything getting very serious here: I just got an email from our GP practice re the Coronavirus - they are not going to let people turn up at the practice without prior telephone triage so that they can direct the person to the most appropriate service or a telephone consultation or, if appropriate, a face to face consultation. And if a patient has a routine appointment booked ahead they will be contacted by phone beforehand to ensure it is appropriate for them to attend. This is all to minimise the risk of coronavirus to patients, and staff, and especially to more vulnerable patients.

 

[Freebird]

Everything getting very serious here: I just got an email from our GP practice re the Coronavirus - they are not going to let people turn up at the practice without prior telephone triage so that they can direct the person to the most appropriate service or a telephone consultation or, if appropriate, a face to face consultation. And if a patient has a routine appointment booked ahead they will be contacted by phone beforehand to ensure it is appropriate for them to attend. This is all to minimise the risk of coronavirus to patients, and staff, and especially to more vulnerable patients.

Man, you guys are so much more prepared than here in the U.S. Thursday, while getting my echo, I asked the technician how she was doing with not touching her face. She alluded to the fact that these things always come up during a presidential election year. Every time there's an election she said, this sort of thing comes up. I was so saddened that I didn't even try to correct her. This is a technician...in my cardiologist's office! I meet with my cardiologist on Monday and will mention to her that she may want to get her workers on board with the idea that there is a pandemic and her patients are at risk!

 

[rich01]

I have an appointment with cardiologist in mid April. At this point, it's a toss up if I will be showing up. No problems, so not like it is urgent.

 

[Paleowoman]

Today most of the supermarkets here (UK) are rationing people to one pack of loo paper each only as people have been buying loads, stockpiling, due to panic buying over the coronavirus. I believe they are also rationing dried pasta and UHT milk.

DH tried to get to a local supermarket to buy some flowers but the queues of cars to enter the car park were too long, something unheard of, so he went away - it wouldn't even be worth walking there with hoards of people there like that

I always do our grocery shopping online so I'll see what I get, or should I write "don't get", in this week's shop !

 

[LondonAndy]

My local Supermarket was sold out of toilet rolls yesterday (not that I needed any, just curious) and today is fully stocked. So it is not that they are in short supply, simply that panic buying is selling them out faster than they can be refilled.

 

[pellicle]

Thank GOD the beer changed its name:

 

[pellicle]

6% to 7% die.

no, nothing like that ... between 2.5% and 3% ... but mainly the elderly.
Coronavirus Age, Sex, Demographics (COVID-19) - Worldometer

AGE​	DEATH RATE confirmed cases	DEATH RATE all cases
80+ years old​	21.9%​	14.8%​
70-79 years old​	​	8.0%​
60-69 years old​	​	3.6%​
50-59 years old​	​	1.3%​
40-49 years old​	​	0.4%​
30-39 years old​	​	0.2%​
20-29 years old​	​	0.2%​
10-19 years old​	​	0.2%​
0-9 years old	​	no fatalities​

 

[pellicle]

...So it is not that they are in short supply, simply that panic buying is selling them out faster than they can be refilled.

meanwhile in Australia


*(for non Australians Date Roll is both a cake and an affectionate name for the paper we use to wipe our dates)

 

[LondonAndy]

Yes, the Australian fight over toilet rolls made news here in UK too! But behaviour not much better here, with ludicrously huge purchases of toilet roll, pasta and bottled water! I feel like standing by the toilet roll aisle pointing out Coronavirus is a respiratory disease, not an illness of the arse.

 

[daVinci]

People are going mad. Times like this show how fragile society is, only one virus away from destabilisation perhaps. Loving the Aussie videos!

Couldn't buy pasta at my local giant supermarket last night- all gone! Man in front of me in the queue had about 60 toilet rolls.

People were also panic buying eggs of all things? It's not like they have an eternal shelf life.

I work in the NHS and people have been stealing masks and hand sanitiser from the end of patient beds even. Very grim.

Not the most fun time to be on the front line with a failing valve.

 

[pellicle]

I work in the NHS and people have been stealing masks and hand sanitiser from the end of patient beds even. Very grim.

A mate who imports from China sussed this situation a few weeks back and landed 5 cubic meters of hand sanitizer in bulk bins @ $1/liter
Hes packaging it and on selling for $27 a liter

I'm doing life wrong

 

[Agian]

meanwhile in Australia


*(for non Australians Date Roll is both a cake and an affectionate name for the paper we use to wipe our dates)

'Call the police' LMAO

 

[Art O Ceitinn]

no, nothing like that ... between 2.5% and 3% ... but mainly the elderly.
Coronavirus Age, Sex, Demographics (COVID-19) - Worldometer

AGE​	DEATH RATE confirmed cases	DEATH RATE all cases
80+ years old​	21.9%​	14.8%​
70-79 years old​	​	8.0%​
60-69 years old​	​	3.6%​
50-59 years old​	​	1.3%​
40-49 years old​	​	0.4%​
30-39 years old​	​	0.2%​
20-29 years old​	​	0.2%​
10-19 years old​	​	0.2%​
0-9 years old	​	no fatalities​

Hi Pellicle my numbers were correct and if using your source WORLDOMETER here are the numbers @14.10h 08/02/2020
ACTIVE CASES
42,932
Currently Infected Patients
36,892 (86%)
in Mild Condition
6,040 (14%)
Serious or Critical
Show Graph

Show Statistics
CLOSED CASES
64,578
Cases which had an outcome:
60,920 (94%)
Recovered / Discharged
3,658 (6%)
Deaths
6%

 

[Art O Ceitinn]

The french goverment have not released the number of new cases for today. The figures for the start of month were 100=+ (the =+ is for Pellicle), yesterday it was 949. Today they wont tell us. I expect the schools etc. to close tomorrow. This is not a little inconvenience.

 

[pellicle]

Hi Pellicle my numbers were correct and if using your source WORLDOMETER here ...

No, it was just the easiest to get to. Ley me fish out some more well authored studies.

Worldometer is at least reasonably accurate, what is your specific complaint with it?

PS: this should be reputable:
ncov – CSSE

The Lancet:
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(20)30076-X/fulltext
In general, COVID-19 is an acute resolved disease but it can also be deadly, with a 2% case fatality rate.

and the CDC from within China
China CDC releases analysis of 72,314 COVID-19 patient records up to Feb 11: Overall fatality 2.3%, 889 (1.2%) asymptomatic cases, 80.9% mild cases, 3019 health workers infected (1716 confirmed), onset of illness peaked between Jan 23-26
http://weekly.chinacdc.cn/en/article/id/e53946e2-c6c4-41e9-9a9b-fea8db1a8f51

 

[pellicle]

This is not a little inconvenience.

Nobody is saying its trivial, but the rates you suggest are beyond any influenza including the Spanish Flu of 1918

 

[Protimenow]

There's hysteria here, in California (if not the entire country). I'll use the Costco measure -- normally, it's fairly busy, but, with this panic, the store seems to have 2-3X the number of customers. When I walked into the store, they handed out wipes for the hands, and for wiping down the carts.
When I walked in, they were telling customers that they were out of toilet paper, paper towels, and water. People are stocking up for the holocaust.
There are concerns about prescription medicatinos becoming unavailable. People are stocking up - if their insurance allows them to refill before the refill date.
As for myself (cough cough, sneeze sneeze) I'm not worried about contracting COVID-19. I'm not sure about its spread - or if I'll get hit by it. I'm not losing any sleep over it -- but a LOT of people seem to be. Corona virus is often a lead news story on local and network news. This probably boosts ratings - although competing channels are also carrying the same news, ad infinitum (well, not infinitum -- coverage will eventually end).

 

[rich01]

There are 2 strains of the virus, one more severe than the other. It would be helpful if countries would identify cases by strain.

I was thinking this morning how US is different from China. In China, the cases came from a single location and then moved to other parts of China. There was a specific area to be quarantined.

In US, the virus is being brought in from all over the world, so hot spots can spring up anywhere. Even if US tried to quarantine the way China did, it just isn't practical or even possible. Right now, colleges and universities are bringing their students home who are studying abroad. That means thousands of potential carriers in thousands of locations around the country.

I'm waiting for DC to get hit hard and see if that changes the government's strategy. Same with Biden, Sanders, and Trump doing rallies and town halls all over the country. All in late 70's and probably 2 with existing health problems.