Some notations...
From the first study (which has been posted before):
Ross said:
Follow-up was 95% complete. Operative mortality was 4% with AVR and 9% with MVR. Total follow-up was 32,190 patient-years (range, 1 month to 24.8 years; average, 7 +/- 5 years).
The results were actually mixed among patients who had had the valve for between one month and 24.8 years. (Despite the title, no one in the study had actually had one for 25 years.) The average length of time that the respondents had owned the valve was 7 years. So it's not really a long-term study. The results were not broken down into five, ten or twenty-year statistics, so the study is not greatly useful for determining efficacy over time.
From the second study:
Ross said:
RESULTS: From October 1977 through October 1997, 271 patients less than 50 years of age had isolated aortic valve replacement. Follow-up was 1957 patient years.
Again the results are from a mixed field as far as length of valve ownership, with a mean of only 7.2 years of valve ownership. These results are also not broken into length of ownership, which would give them more value.
Here are ten- and twenty- year mechanical results from a study that did break them down by length-of-service:
Source: J Thorac Cardiovasc Surg. 2001 Aug;122(2):257-69;
Twenty-year experience with the St Jude Medical mechanical valve prosthesis. Ikonomidis JS, Kratz JM, Crumbley AJ 3rd, Stroud MR, Bradley SM, Sade RM, Crawford FA Jr. from:
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/...ve&db=pubmed&dopt=Abstract&list_uids=14688722
St. Jude Aortic Valve Events
............................at 10 years?..at 20 years?
Required Reoperation............7%........10%
Thromboembolic Event.........18%.......32%
Bleeding Event.....................23%......34%
Endocarditis in Valve..............6%.......6%
Valve-Related Mortality..........6%......14%
Valve-Related Morbidity........36%......54%
Is the SJM a top-of-the-line valve? Yes, I believe so, although I might choose an On-X or other right now, as the choices have expanded interestingly. Will there be someone who has one for forty years? Probably. Fifty years? Maybe. Hope it's someone on this site. Hope I'm here to congratulate them...
Which valve type is better? Statistically, probably neither in a grand and generic sense.
Practically, though, it depends on a lot of things, including your own assessment of what type of risks concern you most. If you're most concerned about additional operations, the mechanical will give you the least likelihood of resurgery, or at least the fewest number of them (assuming the VR corrects all of the eventually operable problems in your heart). However, if you have other, uncorrected issues, the risk of stroke may complicate a later surgery. If you're most concerned about the influence of Coumadin and stroke risk in your daily life, then tissue valves may offer you a more compatible option (assuming you don't wind up with permanent atrial fibrillation from OHS or from presurgical damage). But not everyone weathers or bounds back from OHS easily, and you won't know how you will fare until you do it. That's a little too late for second-guessing, as you'll already be committed to the next one.
In general, the survival rates are about the same, stroke/bleed risks vs. reoperation risks. Some things can raise your risk. Starting younger, the number of operations you go through can change your risk profile. And who says your heart is the only thing that will require opening your chest someday? Medical procedures that require temporary abstention from warfarin can increase stroke potential. Damage from strokes doesn't show up on survival statistics.
It might be interesting for us to consider developing a risk database that an individual could look into, and attempt to apply to him- or herself. We repeat things a lot, but some things submerge for a while, and don't reappear for months.
Best wishes,