Risk analysis is an interesting preposition especially in situations like this. But if one must, you would reach a conclusion the other way around:
1) If the risk of doing surgery (say 1%) is the same as not doing it (say 1%), then former is much better deal. In case of latter, you're taking that chance (i.e. 1%) everyday anyway, while former will require you to assume the same for just 1 single-day. And then you wake-up a few hours later (i.e. after surgery) with 0% risk thereafter, possibly forever. Just imagine how much lighter you would feel as you go back to living your life again, like the rest of us here have had.
2) While the risk of surgery is relatively better known, the risk of not having isn't. It varies so much from one individual to another, there's a huge unknown there. The 2 can't be compared apple-to-apple. People have different size, shapes, genetics, race, etc etc.
3) If you are young (38 is young) and in good general health, your risk is much lower than, say 68 or 58 year old. Your risk may actually be much better than what literature is citing. It's arbitrary at some point to try to break it down any further, for any meaningful purpose.
4) These aortic surgeries are minimal risk these days, thanks to the tremendous progress made by medical science. They've to quote a number and 1% really means it's just about 100%. They quote such risks for just about any surgical procedure. There's nothing 100% but have assurance in the fact that the risk of aortic surgery is the same or better than many other surgeries people do everyday.
5) There are aortic surgeons who would cite you 0.5% risk for aortic aneurysm surgery, if the numbers calm you down. I think you live in the bay area. There are centers like Stanford and UCSF where you would hear risks of that magnitude (0.5%), for example. You've access to great surgeons. Meet with some (I can provide referrals) and just talking to them makes you feel like doing it
Then, you can also go to Cleveland Clinic with world's best surgeons. You have access to something 99% of world's population with BAV probably does not. But then again, this surgery is perfected so much that most of the people in most places around the world have same outcomes. (Hope I'm not offending anyone
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Not sure what your dimensions are exactly, but if it's in > 5.5 cm range, it's time to address it. You will be just fine. Look at so many of us.
In another thread you were seeking ethic-based determination, feel free to reach out to me. I'm Indian origin if that helps. There're no markers as I indicated in that thread that would provide any assurance or guidance to you based on that. However I can relate to your mental and emotional state in this decision making, since I went thru some of that myself at one point (we all do, it's normal). Available to talk to you, let me know.
All the best to you. Do some meditation, yoga, mindfulness, or whatever may work for you to calm down and have faith and trust in science. Look at a whole bunch of us here who have already gone thru it successfully.... You will be just fine. I can say that with VERY HIGH degree of confidence
