The Speculation Game
The Speculation Game
I should point out that at the time my Dad's original speculation was made, we were almost totally uninformed about the subject. It was not an informed guess at all!
The facts of the matter now show how much has actually changed in that time - not as much as we'd hoped, but enough, incidentally, for a tissue valve alternative to be attractive to me, and to add weight to the idea that it was the right decision (which the surgeon made) to repait my valve instead of adding a mechanical one.
I've pointed out clearly what is and isn't speculation - perhaps I should have spent longer on the worst case scenario, which is that Tissue stays at 15-20 years, mechanic valves stay with current ACT regime.
Choosing a valve for now
When you're actually choosing your valve for an op in a few months time, you're perhaps best to lean towards the hard data. (though not ommitting speculation entirely)
For me, I've decided on tissue next and extra op in however many years. Worst case, it'll be current tried and tested tissue, another op 15 years from now with no better valves - every 3rd gen tissue valve failing at 15-, so I'd have to go mechanical for 3rd and final.
I can live with that worst case scenario, although frankly it seems unlikely.
Anyone considering their options should at least think about the worst case, how likely it is, and whether they themselves can live with it.
I feel that to restrict yourself from any speculation is to play it far too safe. That sort of thinking, in my personal opinion, will cause you to miss opportunites.
As an example, my valve choice tomorrow would be the c/e 3000tfx Magna (a bit riskier but likely to last longer) as opposed to the c/e perimount (safer but apt to wear out in 15-20 years
The magna:
facts
- It's built as a modification to the old Perimount
- It is designed to be more optimally sized and reduce prosthesis mismatch, therefore reducing leakage. Early studies (1-2 years) support this.
- It is designed to have a greater orifice area for the same artery size and better hemodynamics (again, 1-2 years studies support this)
-Its Thermafix anticalfication regime has passed studies in rats, rabbits, and sheep showing anything from 50% to 80% reduction in calcification compared to its Xenologic Predecessor (to which ThermaFix adds a second stage to reduce calcium bonding sites.
- It will have been tested in Simulation machines to try to ensure its durability is at least equal to the old Perimount
Speculation
1. The simulated tests will translate to the magna lasting at least as long as the Perimount, if not much longer, in Humans,
2. It will be a better choice than 20 year old technology.
Ok - so my choice involves a risk and isn't the safe solid one. But it's based on an educated guess.
Remember than not taking this risk will involve another risk - that of relying on 20 year old technology which will have "bugs" that have likely been ironed out in the newer ones.
I state now for the benefit of anyone reading this that I am willing to take a risk, provided it's a calculated one. What I am not willing to do is compromise my lifestyle in exchange for security.
You others may have a different attitude - perhaps you have family depending on you. I understand those of you who wish to play safe - but I won't do that.
Long Term
Ok, so my short term choice was simple - motivated by which valve will likely last the longest, given I wish to avoid ACT, my willingness to undergo 2 more ops, and by my general ruggedness (apart from the heart I'm in rude health)
Now, for the long term - well, I've stated that I can live with the worst case, so now I should be free to consider the best case.
I've tried to include a range of new technologies in this post, showing that "all my eggs are not in one basket", that there are a number of alternatives which are all promising.
If I had some money, I'd place a bet on it being better when I have my third operation.
Long term speculation, as opposed to "what I must decide on now" can afford to be a bit vaguer.
OK, it won't be the same for everyone, but that's the same for any valve or treatment - all we can do is make the probable best decision.
But until the worst happens, there's no point in worrying about it.
However, just to keep Ross happy (cause he's very patient with all us bad boys...), I'll start using this disclaimer more often.
Disclaimer: Unless I have posted links to medical studies, the reader should feel it necessary to search the web and check every statement I make for their own information. If I do post the link, be sure to follow it anyway.