Percentage of Risk??

[mipagan]

Thanks for all the great messages you guys have posted to me - it has really made me feel so great, right when I needed it.

I had my pre-op testing today and saw my cardio and surgeon - or rather, my surgeon was in surgery, so I saw a counterpart of his...I asked what the risk of death was, and he told me 5%. I last saw my surgeon (well, for the first and last time, as I live 4 hours away) last Sept. and I'm pretty sure I remember him telling me that the total risk of all complications (from the minor ones all the way to death) was 2-3%. I suppose that 5% is not that much higher, but it sounds that way to me again. The surgeon rephrased it, saying that that means a 95% success rate, which I know is great (especially when you put it that way) but of course I'm still focused on the negative. So, I was wondering, I know we all have differing diagnoses and everything, but can anyone give me their "risk percentage rate" that they were quoted? I'm just trying to figure out if 5% is a rather high risk rate or not...It's probably a dumb question - especially since at this point I'm most likely (heh) going through with it anyway, but I'd just like a ball point figure.

The pre-op testing today was hard...THE DAY is coming up so quickly...

 

[geebee]

I think 5% is a high estimate. Perhaps he meant 5% chance of ANY type of complication from fever to death?

Usually the numbers I hear regarding chance of death is 2-3%.

Please try not to focus on the stats tho. The chances are so very small that it is unfortunate they even need to mention them anymore.

Good luck.

 

[gadgetman]

I was told before leaving for UAB that 98 per cent was the "USUAL" success rate on what I was facing. However by time I met my Surgeon face to face my chances had gone to 80 per cent for successful surgery (20 per cent negative ). He was basing this on the numbers and things forwarded to him by my Cardio. He said I was "one sick puppy" and we would need to get the numbers down before they could operate. To save you the expense of looking up my previous posts I wound up in the ICU for four days prior to my surgery. On Wednesday (my surgery was scheduled for Friday) the Surgeon was not too optimistic about me being able to have the surgery Friday. I even had a visit from a member of the "heart transplant team" stop by Wednesday night to give me my options if things turned out as bad as they expected. Of course they forgot to add in the power of Prayer. Along with the many here that said a word on my behalf Wednesday night was our church Prayer Meeting Night.

Thursday all my numbers hit the normal range and things were back on for Friday. He went in expecting to replace my Mitral Valve and complete 4 (or possibly 5) by-passes. He wound up repairing the one God gave me and only (ONLY!!!) had to do 3 by-passes. As my wife put it, he came out to the waiting room "smiling from ear to ear" and said he couldn't believe how well things went. I tell everyone here that if I gave God 5 more days he would have healed me outright .

The successes of our surgery are quite high. Yes there are some complications that go along with it but overall it is probably better than driving on the highway each day. Wait until they start pushing all those "Consent Forms" in front of you to sign. It list all the complications that "MIGHT" happen during your operation and all of them end in "DEATH" . I told my Cardio other day I recommend they change that to "PERMANT CHANGE OF ADDRESS" instead .

So don't put too much into the numbers, each person is different. Just hang in there and things will be over before you know it. Oh, you will know it but going in with a positive attitude can be a great help. Along with the others here we will be sending prayers and good thoughts your way.

May God Bless,

Danny

 

[PapaHappyStar]

Thats a bit high .. dont think the risk at a big center like CPMC is that much.., also you're young and this is your first surgery so your chances are much better than average -- was the associate you talked to Mauricio Garrido btw.?

 

[Randy & Robyn]

According to my surgeon, Dr. Zehr at Mayo, risk is largely dependent on the condition of your coronary arteries. If they are clear and you are in otherwise good health, valve surgery carries a risk of mortality in the area of 0.5%.

Good luck,
Randy

 

[mipagan]

Thats a bit high .. dont think the risk at a big center like CPMC is that much.., also you're young and this is your first surgery so your chances are much better than average -- was the associate you talked to Mauricio Garrido btw.?

No it was a Dr. Phillips...I can't remember what his first name was, but I *think* it started with an A? Could be totally wrong. He won't even be in on the surgery...

I do remember Dr. Mosca telling me 2-3% last fall, but I don't know if something has changed (their procedures?) since then. Certainly they didn't have any new numbers on me since then, so they couldn't think something had gotten worse. Do you think it would be awful to email Dr. Mosca and ask him this? Is it totally morbid? Well...I know it is, but inappropriate?

 

[mipagan]

Thank you so much Gadgetman, you gave me lots of hope. I am definitely going into this surgery relatively healthy (i.e. no emergency stuff going on). My mother keeps pestering me to go to church tomorrow and get the Annointing of the Sick sacrament, but somehow I'm resisting. Not sure why, hopefully I'll get it together in time

 

[mipagan]

I think 5% is a high estimate. Perhaps he meant 5% chance of ANY type of complication from fever to death?

Usually the numbers I hear regarding chance of death is 2-3%.

Please try not to focus on the stats tho. The chances are so very small that it is unfortunate they even need to mention them anymore.

Good luck.

You're absolutely right Geebee...I get way too caught up in numbers. And as I heard 2-3% last fall, I'm going to go with that Thank you so much for your response.

 

[PapaHappyStar]

No it was a Dr. Phillips...I can't remember what his first name was, but I *think* it started with an A? Could be totally wrong. He won't even be in on the surgery...

I do remember Dr. Mosca telling me 2-3% last fall, but I don't know if something has changed (their procedures?) since then. Certainly they didn't have any new numbers on me since then, so they couldn't think something had gotten worse. Do you think it would be awful to email Dr. Mosca and ask him this? Is it totally morbid? Well...I know it is, but inappropriate?

No - I dont think it would be inappropriate -- I didnt have any issues about asking this question, there is also a lady named Dina Brunstein who I was referred to: [u]db40 at columbia.edu[/u] -- you can also cc. to Kimberly A. Quattrucci [u]kq6 at columbia.edu[/u] who works in the ped. and congenital surgery office..

 

[gadgetman]

Thank you so much Gadgetman, you gave me lots of hope. I am definitely going into this surgery relatively healthy (i.e. no emergency stuff going on). My mother keeps pestering me to go to church tomorrow and get the Annointing of the Sick sacrament, but somehow I'm resisting. Not sure why, hopefully I'll get it together in time

I've been under my Cardio's care for over 11 years before things suddenly went bad so quick. I had two blockages for about 20 years, one had found its way around the blockage and the other was at 70 per cent. I was able to avoid the ER but it was God's will that we kept the appointment with my Surgeon as he was able to put me right into ICU and kept me on schedule.

There will always be a Chaplain available at the Hospital. I would do everything to get on His Good Side .

May God Continue to Bless You,

Danny

 

[PJmomrunner]

I Think this is cumulative risk he's talking about....

I Think this is cumulative risk he's talking about....

At least my surgeon quoted 2% risk of dying on the operating table...2% risk of dying of infection and 1% risk of dying of something else (I don't really remember how it was aportioned out). But once you've survived the the operation itself you're down to 3%.... It is a morbid topic, but acutely pertinent, don't you think?

If you (or your kid) get a 95% on a test, it's excellent. If you are feeling 95% better you're doing just fine. If someone calls you a 9.5 on a scale of 1 to 10, damnit, you're HOT! Right now, it makes sense to look at the 95% full glass and face it...it's full.

All the best to you. Hugs and all good thoughts.

P. J.

p. s. Quote this back to me when it's my turn, okay???

 

[ALCapshaw2]

Pagan -

If you REALLY want some 'inspiring' numbers to put things in perspective, ask about the chance of dieing if your do NOTHING.

That should inspire you to RUN down the hallway to the Operating Room.

Best wishes,

'AL Capshaw'

 

[WendyD]

Hi there,
Ernie was told approx 2% chance of stroke or cardiac arrest, but 100% if he did not have the surgery within 6 months.
So we had no option. It was hellishly nerve racking at the time,
Try and calm down and be positive.
Even though we are not Catholic, a very dear friend,gave Ernie a Rosary and came and said prayers before surgery and that really helped us all.
Wishing you an uneventful surgery and speedy recovery.
Looking forward to hearing how you are doing,
Very best wishes
Ernie & Wendy

 

[Gemma]

Jim was quoted a 1% risk of dying, and 2% risk of other complications e.g. stroke, kidney problems, needing a pacemaker etc.
He was 26 at the time of his AVR. The surgeon also told us within 5 years without surgery (maybe less) he'd be unable to even climb a flight of stairs without struggling for breath. That's assuming he'd last that long without the AVR.
I was always rather surprised with how calmly he accepted the risks but they were better odds than not having the surgery!
Gemma.

 

[Mary]

I was told 5% and I thought it was high. When I was talking to Dr. Stelzer, his statistical data on his Ross procedures was extraordinarily low. That was the reason I was willing to risk the more complicated surgery; he has great outcomes!
I'm not worried about the 5%. I would be if I could change it, but I can't, so I figure there's no reason to dwell on it.
I'm taking Al's message to heart (pun intended)!

 

[Nancy]

Joe had his first replacement in 1977, and I'll bet the stats were far different then than they are now. For his second surgery, he was told 2-3 percent risk. For his third surgery it was much higher.

I think 2-3 percent for a first surgery is now the most often quoted stat. But that takes into account those who are very ill and those who are much older.

By the way, we are in the New York tri-county area. I see that you are in Albany. Joe's second and third heart surgery and one lung surgery were done by a member of the Albany Cardiothoracic Surgeons group, Dr. DePan. And another lung surgery was done by a colleague of his.

 

[nia]

Hi Pagan,

I hope you are getting a lot of rest and not worrying too much I live about 15 min. away from where you are having the surgery, so please let me know if you want/need anything.

Good luck!

 

[gijanet]

I've learned..............

I've learned..............

not to get too wrapped up in statistics. The odds of having a child with my daughter's unique combination of complex heart defects is about 1 in a million, yet here we are. The survival stats are even more abysmal...........yet here we are. I know that statistics do have some merit, but 95% or 98%? THat is a pretty insignificant difference. Even if the survival rate is 98%, that doesn't seem very relevant to the 2% who fell into THAT other category.

Do try and get some rest and not dwell too much on what is really out of your control. You have done all your homework and are as prepared as you can be. ANd please remember that the odds are very much in your favor (you don't even want to know our risk stats - I wish I didn't know ours). Take that 95% and run with it!

Sending hugs and prayers and please keep us posted.

 

[mipagan]

Thanks to everyone for your support and replies. 24 hours to go. See you on the other side!

 

[PapaHappyStar]

All the best, keep us updated -- Regards, Burair