Guess a number of years

[Juan P. Negret]

I would like to receive input in the following issue. I think this could be a useful information for someone facing valve selection.

For a specific model of a tissue valve, a population of patientes receive the valve in a certain year. Each year after that, there is a number (in percents) for the probability that a reoperation is needed for this population of patientes because the valve fails that year. This number rises year after year.

I would like to hear from you on your educated guess of the number of years that this population of patientes would have to wait until that probability rises above 50%.

To be more specific: the valve is the more durable of the Carpentier-Edwards Perimount Magna series for a mitral valve; the population of patients consist of quite typical 60 year-old males (who are not entirely sedentary but do not practice regular sports).

 

[Nancy]

try this link to two articles, one is a suscriber article, and the other is a pay to view articel.

Looks like at least some of the statistics you are looking for.

http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0022522306002340

 

[dick0236]

I would like to hear from you on your educated guess of the number of years that this population of patientes would have to wait until that probability rises above 50%.

To be more specific: the valve is the more durable of the Carpentier-Edwards Perimount Magna series for a mitral valve; the population of patients consist of quite typical 60 year-old males (who are not entirely sedentary but do not practice regular sports).

I would hope that this valves life, in the 60 yr. old population, would be at least 15 years before the replacement probability reached 50%.